Who's winning the debt debate

Boehner now finds himself boxed in… And because he’s fixing his legislation after the CBO score, he has a harder argument to make that Reid and the Dems are on board with his plan… Desperately searching for an acceptable trigger… Due to all of this chaos and confusion, the odds of a short-term extension (like 10 days) are more likely… The WSJ: Debt-ceiling debate is creating business uncertainty… Is Mitt Romney counting his chickens before they hatch?... On the trail: Pawlenty and Santorum are in Iowa, Romney’s in Ohio, and Gingrich is in Georgia.

By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower Boehner’s boxed in: Speaker John Boehner had to walk away from the negotiations with President Obama, in large part because too many members of his House GOP conference wouldn’t accept the deal (even before the controversy over that extra $400 billion in revenue). Now, a growing number of House conservatives -- along with the Club for Growth and the Heritage Foundation’s political arm -- oppose Boehner’s go-it-alone debt plan. To make matters worse for the speaker, the Congressional Budget Office determined that his legislation cut less spending than promised, and a vote is now postponed until tomorrow as he goes back to the drawing board. What’s more, Standard & Poor’s said on CNBC it’s “concerned” about Boehner’s plan requiring the debt limit to be raised once again in early 2012. Bottom line -- Boehner is boxed in. But there’s an escape hatch: Does he go back to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and his GOP conference and make his case that a “grand bargain” with the president is an easier lift than what they have now, since at least they'll have the help of Democrats to pass something and the "grand bargain" actually could change the deficit trajectory.

Judging from the reticence of GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney to jump into the center of the fray, it's not lost on Republican strategists that a lopsided 65% of independents favor the combination spending/tax approach.

At a time when Obama's standing might be expected to be sagging as economic doldrums persist, Republicans have handed him a boost. Over the past several months, Obama received more credit for behaving responsibly on the budget, rising from 46% to 52%, while the GOP's already poor standing for fiscal irresponsibility inched up from 60% to 63%.

Just over a half of the country is ready to blame the GOP for failing to raise the debt ceiling as compared with 30% who would blame Obama.

One of the most politically damaging aspects of the debt ceiling debate for Republicans is that their fiscal priorities are at odds with super-majorities of Americans. About three-quarters favor raising taxes on the rich and clawing back tax advantages for oil and gas companies and the private jets owned by businesses. Meanwhile, the GOP's open campaign to substantially scale back spending on Social Security and Medicare and restructure those programs is opposed by more than 8 out of 10 Americans.

But as the GOP prepares to fall on its sword, Obama has inadvertently fueled the generalized disgust with government that propelled Republicans to striking midterm election wins in 2010 and continues to generate support for aspects of its agenda. The nearly 80% of Americans who are dissatisfied with the country's direction and believe that it is heading on the wrong track are the highest historical levels under Obama.

The president's flagging of Washington's "dysfunction" reinforces the distrust of government that many Americans harbor, oddly making it harder for him to rally support behind government programs such as Medicare and Social Security. This may help to explain why the GOP is losing the debt ceiling debate and yet three-quarters of Americans favor a constitutional amendment to balance the budget.

The lessons moving forward are clear. Republican leaders intent on winning the White House and strengthening their position in Congress need to steer their party back to the views of mainstream America or squander what may be setting up as a propitious opportunity in 2012 to run against the "in" party in a time of deep discontent.

As for Democrats, they need to focus like a laser beam on the concrete programs that many Americans rely upon and steer away from the sweeping conclusions about government waste and dysfunction that undergird a genuine philosophical conservatism in America.