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Monday, July 4, 2011

What's next for Thailand

Political novice Yingluck Shinawatra says she has formed a coalition with four smaller parties, boosting her majority in parliament a day after being elected Thailand's first female prime minister.

Election officials said Yingluck's Puea Thai party captured 265 of the 500 seats in Sunday's voting. The addition of the smaller parties will bring the total to 299 seats, providing insurance against legal challenges that could eat away at the Puea Thai majority.

The outcome was a stunning setback for the Democrat party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who announced Monday he will step down as party leader.

It also means a return to influence for Yingluck's older brother Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister who was deposed by the military five years ago. Despite their hostility to Thaksin, military leaders said Monday they will respect the election result.

Thaksin has been living in self-imposed exile in the Middle East because of a conviction on corruption charges that he says was politically motivated. One of the first challenges facing Yingluck after the new parliament is seated will be whether to pardon her brother.

Nonetheless, Pongsudhirak noted, Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party and its successor, People's Power Party, were ultimately dissolved by the courts.
In opinion pieces published before the elections, Pongsudhirak proposed a post-election roadmap for the next three to six months.
Under the grace period, the army chief would remain, the deaths from last year's political protests would be investigated, Thaksin would stay away, key policy fronts would not shift drastically, and a controversial amnesty proposal for those facing charges in the 2006 coup would be put on hold. Furthermore, the anti-Thaksin coalition would have to refrain from protests as in 2008, when Abhisit came to power, Pongsudhirak added.
The main challenge for Yingluck won't be cobbling together a coalition but keeping election promises and meeting the expectations of those who voted for her party, Herrera-Lim said. Her party's victory at the polls can be attributed not just to the immense popularity of her brother in many parts of Thailand, but also discontent over rising prices - and with it the Abhisit government, he said.
Any programs involving government handouts - whether to farmers, the elderly or for schoolchildren - would carry a price tag; the question is whether such promises can be delivered.

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