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Monday, July 4, 2011

Could Gaddafi stay in Libya?

Libyan government has had meetings in foreign capitals with representatives of the country's opposition to try to negotiate a peace deal, a spokesman for Muammar Gaddafi's administration said on Monday.

It was not immediately clear whether the talks took place with the knowledge or endorsement of the rebel National Transitional Council. Most Western countries say the council is the Libyan people's sole legitimate representative.

The spokesman, Moussa Ibrahim, said in an emailed statement that meetings had taken place in Italy, Egypt and Norway and were witnessed by representatives of those countries' governments. He said talks were still going on.

The statement said one of the meetings was in Rome between Libyan government officials and Abdel Fattah Younes al Abidi, Gaddafi's former security minister who defected to the rebel side in February.

"In the last few weeks and in several world capitals, high-ranking Libyan government officials have met with members of the Libyan opposition to negotiate peaceful ways out of the Libyan crisis," the statement said. "Other direct negotiations still take place as of now.

Mustafa Abdel Jalil, chair of the Transitional National Council, told Reuters: "If he desires to stay in Libya, we will determine the place and it will be under international supervision. And there will be international supervision of all his movements."

The Libyan leader has so far insisted that whatever happens he will not leave the country. One of the objections to allowing him to stay is the fear that he could continue to manipulate Libyan politics after his official departure from power, but strict supervision of his movements and contacts could overcome that. Jalil suggested, for example, that Gaddafi could spend his retirement under guard in a military barracks.

Some Libyans certainly welcome that idea. One quoted in the New York Times described it as "the perfect move to save Libyan blood", though another said Gaddafi should either leave the country or go to jail.

Providing dictators with a face-saving exit may be a pragmatic solution but it does raise some tricky issues.

The Tunisian president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, was allowed to flee the country. He took refuge in Saudi Arabia but is now wanted for trial in Tunisia. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak was allowed to "retire" to the Sinai resort of Sharm el-Sheikh but also faces prosecution along with other members of his family. Meanwhile, Yemen's president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has been insisting on immunity from prosecution as one of several pre-conditions for stepping down.

However, the situation in Libya is complicated by the arrest warrants for Gaddafi and his son issued last month by the International Criminal Court. Letting him stay in Libya under "international supervision" is probably impractical, since it would amount to protecting him from arrest – in defiance of the ICC.

The transitional council's offer was apparently made privately a month ago, before the ICC issued its warrants, and there is some speculation as to why Jalil has raised it in public now.

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